Professor calls for immediate lockdown

If the Covid-19 reproduction number, also known as ‘the R value’ or ‘R0’, is below 1, the virus will eventually die out. If it is above 1, the virus continues to spread.

Data science professor Hannes Gislason estimates that the R value is currently around 4, which means that an infected person will, on average, pass on the virus to four other people.

And despite limited data – only three days of positive tests – Gislason says there appear to be sufficient indications that the R value is growing exponentially.

“Assuming that people displayed a similarly easy-going behaviour during the ólavsøka celebrations as they did in early March before the first Covid-19 cases were registered, my careful estimate would be that the reproduction number is currently about the same as when it peaked in mid-March,” says the professor, who researches into data science, biostatistics and bioinformatics at the University of the Faroe Islands.

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“But it may be higher now because unlike in March, it appears that many of the new infections were contracted at so-called super-spreader events such as private house parties where a single person or very few passed on the virus to many others.”

The only way to stop this exponential growth, he argues, is to impose an immediate lockdown.

“A lengthy lockdown may not be necessary, but it needs to be implemented as soon as possible, and it must continue until we get the situation under control,” says the professor.

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“The idea of reversing this exponential growth without imposing a lockdown is an illusion because society will lock down by itself anyway.

“Employers will send all their staff home, daycare institutions will close down and all societal dynamics will automatically grind to a halt.”

He is calling on the authorities to act swiftly because “in this case, it is wiser to lock down one day too early than one day too late".

Prime Minister Bárður á Steig Nielsen has declined to comment on the professor’s suggestions until the results from yesterday’s Covid-19 tests are published.

For more information about Covid-19 in the Faroes, visit corona.fo.

Translated by prosa.fo